Archive | Financial planning

Tax Loss Harvesting Revisited

No one likes to see their investments plummet in value, but it’s going to happen many times over your lifetime. If you’ve got a strategy for tax loss selling, you can make the best of the situation by harvesting capital losses that can be used to offset capital gains. That gives you an opportunity to reduce or defer taxes in the future, or even recover taxes you paid in past.

In a blog post on September 26, I noted that Canadian equities had fallen by about 5% since the beginning of the month, which could have triggered one such opportunity. (A useful rule of thumb, courtesy of Larry Swedroe, says a security should be sold when the loss is at least 5% and at least $5,000.) If you had recently made a large purchase of the Vanguard FTSE Canada All Cap (VCN), for example, you might have sold it that week to realize a capital loss and then repurchased the iShares Core S&P/TSX Capped Composite (XIC) or a comparable fund. As long as the replacement ETF tracks a different index you’ll maintain your exposure to Canadian stocks while also steering clear of the superficial loss rule.

Continue Reading 56

An Interview With Wealthsimple: Part 1

Wealthsimple is one of several online investment firms that have launched in Canada this year. They’ve often been referred to as robo-advisors, though they reject that name, and with good reason. While some parts of the process are automated, clients of these new firms do interact with humans, and all the trades are made by a flesh-and-blood portfolio manager.

At Weathsimple, that portfolio manager is David Nugent, and we recently sat down to discuss the firm’s advice model and investment strategy. Here’s the first part of our interview.

The first step in building a client’s portfolio is determining an appropriate asset allocation. How do you do that?

DN: The first step is a 10-question risk assessment clients do online when they sign up for an account. After that they book a call with me—or, as we grow, someone else on our team. We try to get an understanding of their past investing experience and any biases they might have, and then we talk about the asset mix. The real conversation happens over the phone.

Surprisingly, we’re more likely to see people increase their risk level after the phone call.

Continue Reading 18

How to Estimate Stock and Bond Returns

Even the simplest financial plan requires assumptions about how your investments will perform. We know these assumptions can never be perfectly accurate, but they need to be thoughtful and reasonable. If you’re just assuming a balanced portfolio will return 7% every year, then your projections aren’t likely to be useful.

So what exactly are reasonable assumptions for stocks and bonds? In Great Expectations—a new white paper I’ve co-authored with Raymond Kerzérho, PWL Capital’s director of research—we explain the methodology we use when creating financial plans.

There are two main approaches one can use when estimating future returns. The first is to rely on history: for example, if the average return of global stocks over the last century was 8%, one could simply assume the same going forward. The second approach uses valuation metrics to estimate future stock returns based on current market conditions. You can also apply these two methods to expected bond returns, using either the long-term historical average or the current yield on a benchmark index.

As you’ve probably figured out, both methods are flawed. But as we argue in the white paper,

Continue Reading 44

Do Bonds Still Belong in an RRSP?

It has long been conventional wisdom that bonds should be held in RRSPs wherever possible, since interest income is fully taxable. Once you run out of contribution room, equities can go in a non-registered account, because Canadian dividends and capital gains are taxed more favorably. But is this idea still valid? That’s the question Justin Bender and I explore in our new white paper, Asset Location for Taxable Investors.

Here’s an example we used to illustrate the problem. Assume you’re an Ontario investor with a marginal tax rate of 46.41%. Your non-registered account holds $1,000 in Canadian equities that return 8%, of which 3% is from eligible dividends and 5% is a realized capital gain. You would pay $8.86 in tax on the dividend income ($30 x 29.52%) and $11.60 on the realized capital gain ($50 x 23.20%), for a total of $20.46. Meanwhile, a $1,000 bond yielding 5% (or $50 annually) would be taxed at your full marginal rate, resulting in a tax bill of $23.21.

In this example, even though the total return on the stocks was higher (8% versus 5%) the amount of tax payable on the bond holding was significantly greater.

Continue Reading 19

Ask the Spud: Is My Pension Like a Bond?

Q: My wife and I have been using the Couch Potato strategy for a few years now, but something has always nagged me. I am fortunate enough to have a defined benefit pension that will pay me $50,000 a year in retirement. Should I consider this the fixed income portion of my portfolio and put the rest in equities? – Brian

This a critical financial planning question for anyone with a pension, and yet it’s often framed in an unhelpful way.

A popular school of thought says you should think of a pension as a bond, presumably because both bonds and pensions pay predictable amounts of guaranteed income. The problem is, there is no way to put that idea into practice when managing a portfolio.

In this case, our reader has a pension that will pay him $50,000 a year. What would an equivalent bond holding be? Let’s assume he also has $300,000 in personal savings, and that it’s all equities. What would his overall asset allocation be? Even if he did establish a present value for the pension, how would that be helpful when it was time to rebalance the portfolio to its targets?

Continue Reading 29

Will Robo-Advisors Ever Come to Canada?

Every investor who’s fired a bad advisor and become a do-it-yourselfer has probably had mixed feelings. On one hand, it’s liberating to get away from a costly strategy that was performing poorly. But if you’ve never managed your own portfolio, it won’t take long to realize it’s not as simple as you first thought. In the last couple of years a growing number of US investors has been bridging that gap with online services that design, implement and manage ETF portfolios for a fraction of the cost of a human advisor.

These so-called “robo-advisors” take you through a series of questions to determine your goals and your risk tolerance and then build a diversified portfolio using an appropriate mix of equity and bond ETFs. The service looks after rebalancing and reinvestment of dividends: all you do is contribute regularly and the software does the rest. Wealthfront, which bills itself as “the largest and fastest growing software-based financial advisor,” even includes tax-loss harvesting for accounts over $100,000.

The cost for all of this? At Wealthfront you can invest your first $10,000 for free, after which the fee is 0.25% annually.

Continue Reading 56

Calculate Your Personal Rate of Return

On January 9, I published the 2013 returns of my model portfolios. The equity markets performed spectacularly last year, but most investors are likely to be far more interested in the performance of their own portfolios. Problem is, calculating your personal rate of return is more difficult than most investors realize.

If you’ve made no contributions or withdrawals during the year, the math is simple enough. But what if you made a big lump sum contribution during RRSP season? Or took $7,000 out of your TFSA to buy a used car? If you make monthly automatic monthly contributions, you may have seen your account balance grow every month, but most of that increase is from new money, not investment returns. Any time you introduce cash flows to the portfolio, calculating your rate of return suddenly becomes much harder.

If you work with an advisor, he or she should provide you with your personal rate of return at least once a year. But hard as it is to believe, many aren’t doing this. The Canadian Securities Administrators issued a policy in July making it mandatory, but firms have three years to comply.

Continue Reading 37

Pulling Off the Bandage Quickly

Deferred sales charges (DSCs) may have been the mutual fund industry’s greatest marketing innovation. Back in the 1980s, it wasn’t unusual for funds to be sold with front-end loads of 5% or more. Then fund companies realized it’s a mistake to charge an entry fee that discourages people from buying your product. Better to draw them in for free and charge them dearly to leave: DSCs typically start at about 6% and continue on a sliding scale for six or seven years, with no time off for good behaviour.

For investors who have six-figure mutual fund portfolios, the cost of selling funds with DSCs is downright painful: in our DIY Investor Service we have worked with clients who have had to swallow more than $5,000. There are no doubt countless others who want to break free of a bad relationship and start fresh with a low-cost portfolio of index funds, but who just can’t bring themselves to fork over those DSCs. They’d prefer to sell their funds gradually over two or three years in order to reduce the upfront cost.

That’s understandable, but in most cases it’s probably the wrong decision. While there may be ways to make a gradual exit,

Continue Reading 30

More DIY Investing Challenges

In my last post, I looked at some of the biggest challenges faced by DIY investors. I came up with the list after working with clients of PWL Capital’s DIY Investor Service. The theory behind indexing is relatively straightforward, and it’s quite easy to set up a simple portfolio. But do-it-yourselfers often face obstacles when trying to implement their plan. Here are a few more that need to be overcome if you want to be a successful DIYer.

Unrealistic expectations. Anyone who works with an advisor completes a risk tolerance questionnaire, and the process is revealing. Investors often say they want an expected return of 6% to 7% (occasionally we get people who expect 8% or more) while also indicating they’ll accept no more than a 10% loss in any given year. Those goals are incompatible.

With bond yields under 3% today, a balanced portfolio of 60% equities and 40% fixed income probably has an expected return of about 5% before fees, and in a scenario like 2008–09 it could suffer a drawdown close to 20%. Unless investors understand these trade-offs they can’t hope to carry out a long-term plan.

Continue Reading 25