The anticipation has been palpable, I know, but the waiting is over. The second edition of the MoneySense Guide to the Perfect Portfolio is now available.
The first edition of my handbook for do-it-yourself index investors, published last October, sold out quickly as Couch Potatoes stampeded to their local newsstands to demand a copy. The revised second edition should now be available across Canada on magazine newsstands at Chapters, Shoppers Drug Mart, Walmart and Loblaws. It’s also available online, and if you order 51 copies or more, you get a hefty discount. Order 99 and you save even more.
While the second edition is very similar to the first, there have been a surprising number of developments since last fall. Vanguard arrived in Canada, Claymore was bought by BlackRock, and three brokerages now offer commission-free ETFs. The guide has been updated accordingly.
Now with improved performance!
I have long wanted to compile more complete historical performance data for my model portfolios, but the problem has always been that the ETFs have very short track records. In his excellent book The Smartest Portfolio You’ll Ever Own, Dan Solin gets around this idea by using a combination of real fund returns and index data. To account for costs, Solin subtracted each ETF’s management expense ratio from the index returns when doing his calculations. Since most well-run ETFs have low tracking errors, this is an imperfect but reasonable proxy, and I decided to do the same for the new edition of my own book.
Well, to be honest, I asked Justin Bender, CFA and portfolio manager at PWL Capital, to use his large brain and larger database to do the actual work in exchange for a pint of beer. It was a huge undertaking, but I think it will provide index investors with a reasonable idea of how the strategy performed over the last 15 years (from 1997 through 2011). The results and the description of how we compiled the data are available on the Model Portfolios page. I will update the numbers annually—at least as long as Justin is still talking to me. Here’s a summary of the results (all figures are annualized percentages):
Global Couch Potato | Complete Couch Potato | Uber-Tuber | |
---|---|---|---|
3 years | 7.43 | 11.55 | 9.52 |
5 years | 1.12 | 3.26 | 1.89 |
10 years | 3.87 | 6.29 | 5.54 |
15 years | 5.20 | 6.98 | 6.17 |
Standard deviaton | 8.02 | 8.21 | 7.92 |
Worst 12 months | -19.02 | -20.07 | -19.89 |
Worst 36 months | -6.68 | -4.53 | -4.91 |
Finally, I have made some changes to the Über-Tuber, my model portfolio with a tilt to value and small-cap stocks. Long-time readers will know this portfolio has evolved a few times over the years as I have struggled to keep it simple and inexpensive while still getting access to the value and small-cap premiums. With Justin’s help once again (that’s two pints I owe him now), we’ve come up with a version that it is 10 basis points cheaper. The main change was getting rid of the fundamental-weighted ETFs for the US and international exposure, and replacing these with cheaper value and small-cap funds from Vanguard and iShares. Another change is incorporating two BMO bond ETFs that approximate the maturities targeted by Dimensional Fund Advisors in their fixed income funds. The new version now appears on the Model Portfolios page.
First post (and contest entry)!
I already have the first edition, but that second edition is still tempting :)
I’m looking forward to reading the second edition. Thanks for the new information!
I wondered what would be added to the first edition…I found it very complete, starightforward and informative and I recommend it to others to help them break the shackles that bind them to mutual funds. Tons of useful info in the book and on the site, so thanks and keep it up. I’ve used Norbert’s Gambit for US listedVanguard ETFs.
But any thoughts on the difference between the Global and the Complete CP in the last few years? REITs perhaps?
The last edition of the Guide helped me set everything up. Can’t wait to see how I can tweak my portfolio with the latest.
I will be looking next time I pass the magazine rack.
a new edition! yeah! I liked the first one and I am assuming I’ll get some great info out of this one too. thanks
Hi Dan,
Have you considered compiling the IRR (internal rate of return) of the portfolios where one would have started with 0$ 15 years ago and added 1000$ every quarter or year? I don’t think that many couch potatos have the necessary funds to make a one time contribution and wait 15 years (or longer) until retirement.
It seems to me that the IRR better captures the effect of market volatility on the portfolio.
Excellent news, Dan. Any word on the pricing of the book? It seems like something cheap enough that I can buy for members of my family.
I have nearly consumed every single article on this website. Do you think it is worthwhile to purchase this? Basically what I am asking is does it contain new information that the blog doesn’t already provide? Btw, how many pages does it contain?
Thanks!
Great to hear the second edition is out, I will be sharing this news with family, friends and co-workers who need more information on DIY investing and indexing.
Great book. My first addition is circulating among my friends. I need an updated copy for myself.
Thanks!
I’m glad there’s another issue coming out. I have bought several copies of the first one but have given them away to family members and was having trouble finding one for myself. Keep up the great work!
Nice post once again Dan, I’ll try and hold off an see if I win the draw if not I’ll be picking up a copy ASAP.
This is going to be an excellent Christmas/birthday present for some family members! Thanks!
How has the TD e-series mutual fund portfolio done compared to the ETF version?
Heard about this strategy from Justin at PWL Capitol on Twitter. Looking forward to getting a copy of this book.
I read the first version and loved it, would love to have the second edition as well.
I loved the first book and recommended it to many including my library. I am glad the second edition will arrive because I want to have a copy to share when I recommend it to others
Many thanks to everyone for the comments.
@MadMike: Yes, the excellent recent returns on REITs and real-return bonds explain the big performance difference between the Global and Complete portfolios. That’s not likely to continue, but the added diversification of those two asset classes appears to be a real benefit.
@MelvinP: The book is definitely not a “best of the blog” thing. It deals with the same subject matter, though in many cases the book is less technical, since I assume that blog readers already have some familiarity with the strategy.
@CCP Fan: You’re right, of course, that no investors makes a single lump sum deposit and then sits on it for 15 years. But to do an IRR analysis would involve just as many unrealistic assumptions. And because the decision of when to add new money is personal, I’m not sure how genuinely helpful it would be in evaluating the effectiveness of the strategy.
Looking forward to reading it!
Thanks for the chance to win the book! I’m looking forward to reading it :-)
I was looking for this book! Glad to hear the 2nd edition is here.
Winning this book would be awesome. I recently discovered this web site and it has been of great help. Thanks
I was really impressed by the first book and would love to get the second edition. thanks
As always, I would love to read what you wrote.
Why only 15 years?
@Que: The farther back you go, the less reliable the data, especially for real estate and real return bonds. (RRBs didn’t even exist until 1992.)
Please add me as an entrant
3 years and counting as I try to get my accounts aligned with the potatoe philosophy. Performance data is welcome. James.
Count me in for the book giveaway!
Finally set up my couch potato portfolio and I would love to win the book giveaway to keep me on track!
Looking forward to checking out the book!
I am going to buy one of these for each of our kids. Count that as five sales!
Looking forward to reading it!
Cant wait for it. Yayyyyyy
Me please
Will be recommending this book for my wife!
Looking forward to winning a copy!
i guess more comforting information may help me adopt a couch potato portfolio than sitting on cash!
I enjoyed the first edition and I’m looking forward to reading the new edition.
The first edition of the book has made the rounds of my whole family but I would love to check out the second edition as well! Thanks for producing this!
I added my name using the widget above, assuming I’m eligible. If I win I’ll be sure to pass it along to a promising DIY couch potato!
One question about the new Über-Tuber model portfolio:
This model calls for a 20% allocation to corporate bonds (BMO Short Corporate Bond ZCS).
But Yale’s endowment manager David Swensen tells us to shun corporate bonds.
So I’m a bit torn.
@Dan Hallett: Of course you’re eligible, but only if you give the copy to one of your clients. :)
@Wendy: Yes, Swensen has always argued that taking any kind of credit risk on the bond side is not worth it. I’m pretty agnostic on this question. I am comfortable with corporate bonds (especially short-term investment-grade bonds like ZCS), but I think it’s perfectly reasonable to stick to government bonds if you prefer.
The first edition was excellent and accessible. It was also physically accessible… I picked up my copy at a Loblaws Superstore when I spotted it in the magazine rack on one of those displays that projects out of the rack to make it more prominent. Great marketing for a book that would be so useful to so many people.
Dan – first edition was awesome and provided me with much needed guidance to set up my Couch Potatoe portfolio. I took the plunge last Feb and haven’t looked back!
I can’t wait for the second edition as it will be an invaluable resource when it comes time to rebalance my porfolio. I’ve shared my first edition with family and they wanted to know where to buy their own – but unfortunately it was sold out by then. I’m sure they will be looking out for edition #2! Any idea when it will hit the newstands?
Looking forward to reading the book.
I’d love to win a copy.
Hope I win. I’ll still be your friend and faithful reader even if it doesn’t work out that way.